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The Ludwigshafen chemical company has made headlines several times. Goldman Sachs raises its price target to 48 euros, while BASF itself is working to buy back its own shares and announce strategic agreements. The stock has been moving for weeks in a narrow range, approximately between 42 and 46 euros. But that’s exactly where something crucial could be brewing. The 50-day average is approaching the 200-day average from below – both are currently almost at the same level, around 43.57 and 43.80 euros respectively. If the shortest average exceeds the longest average, a so-called golden cross is created. This technical signal could be the starting signal for a rally towards 60 to 70 euros. However, if the breakout fails, there is a risk of falling back below 40 euros. The coming weeks will show whether BASF will turn the situation around or continue its consolidation.

Strategic decisions ensure movement

BASF cleans house and sets clear priorities. The sale of the optical brighteners business to Catexel has been finalized. At the same time, the group is massively strengthening its agricultural activity. The Nunhems subsidiary takes over Noble Seeds in India and thus strengthens its leading position in the field of vegetable seeds. Harbor Energy’s participation is particularly spicy. He bought the American producer LLOG Exploration for $3.2 billion. BASF owns 41 percent of Harbor Energy and thus benefits indirectly from increased cash flows from oil and gas activities in the Gulf of Mexico. The transaction is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2026. Good news is also coming at the main plant in Ludwigshafen. A new agreement with the works council excludes layoffs for operational reasons until the end of 2028. At least 1.5 billion euros are spent each year on infrastructure and transformation. Management is also consistently pursuing its share buyback program. This continued demand stabilizes the price and signals confidence.

Charttechnik

The stock has been stuck in a relatively tight trading range since October. Basically, as already mentioned above, between 42 and 46 euros. It is precisely in this area that the decisive drama is currently taking place. The 50 SMA at 43.57 euros and the 200 SMA at 43.80 euros are quite close to each other. This rare constellation shows a close balance between buyers and sellers, but it could become explosive. The situation is interesting because if the shortest average exceeds the longest average, a golden cross is created. This bullish signal could trigger a strong upward movement. Analysts then see a potential of up to 60 or even 70 euros. However, if the bullish breakout fails, the situation becomes bleak. A return below 41.50 euros would technically open the door to the bottom. The 52-week low was 37.80 euros – this level could then quickly return to the center of attention. The current price of around 43.60 euros marks exactly a turning point. If you want to actively trade the range, you can place buy orders at the lower limit and sell orders at the upper limit. This way you are prepared for both scenarios.

What to do?

Goldman Sachs estimates that the stock will reach 48 euros and justifies this by improving cash flow and disciplined capital allocation. The ECB expects stronger growth of 1.2% in the Eurozone for 2026. This could finally provide a tailwind for the chemical industry. Basically, BASF does a lot of things right. The portfolio is adjusted, the agricultural division is strengthened and additional income comes from Harbor Energy. The dividend, which should amount to just over 2 euros, offers an attractive yield at the current price. Graphically, BASF finds itself at a crossroads. The possible Golden Cross would be a strong buy signal. If the breakout above 46 euros is successful, 60 to 70 euros is completely realistic. However, if action fails at this level, there is a risk of problems. For courageous and persistent investors, BASF is now worth the detour. Anyone who joins must set a stop price, e.g. B. set at 36.50 euros. The coming weeks will decide whether this sideways movement turns into a true trend reversal. The chances are not bad, but patience is required.

Author: Felix Goldbach, editorial team of FinanzNachrichten

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